{"id":5316,"date":"2017-10-30T05:34:04","date_gmt":"2017-10-30T12:34:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/?p=5316"},"modified":"2017-10-25T11:30:00","modified_gmt":"2017-10-25T18:30:00","slug":"bump-your-safe-withdrawal-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/bump-your-safe-withdrawal-rate\/","title":{"rendered":"Bump Your Safe Withdrawal Rate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/iStock-517376396.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-5322 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/iStock-517376396-300x201.jpg\" alt=\"picture of retirement plan for bump your safe withdrawal rate blog post\" width=\"300\" height=\"201\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/iStock-517376396-300x201.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/iStock-517376396-622x415.jpg 622w, https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/iStock-517376396-150x100.jpg 150w, https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/iStock-517376396.jpg 723w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Are you near retirement? Are you realizing you want or need to bump your safe withdrawal rate?<\/p>\n<p>In other words, rather than going with the standard 4% figure people use, do you need to look for ways to nudge that value up?<\/p>\n<p>Maybe to 4.25% or 4.5%. Maybe even higher. Like 5%.<\/p>\n<p>You need to be <em>really<\/em> careful when doing this sort of math. But here\u2019s the thing: You can use some tricks to bump your safe withdrawal rates.<\/p>\n<p>The list that follows identifies the good ideas I\u2019ve collected from people. But note that you can\u2019t use all of these. You\u2019ll use one or two or maybe three. And what you\u2019ll get is maybe a half a percent to one percent bump. At best.<\/p>\n<p>But let\u2019s go through the list.<\/p>\n<h2>Bump Your Safe Withdrawal Rate with Higher Return<\/h2>\n<p>Okay, a first easy-to-describe but not so easy-to-implement idea: You should be able to bump up your safe withdrawal rate if you can bump up your portfolio return.<\/p>\n<p>A portfolio heavier with equities and a portfolio that uses modern portfolio theory construction techniques may let you get a better return\u2014maybe even without bearing additional risk. And that\u2019ll help your safe withdrawal rate.<\/p>\n<p>A corollary to this: If your portfolio earns a low return\u2014perhaps because you don\u2019t have enough equities or perhaps because you did a bad job constructing the portfolio\u2014you probably decrease your safe withdrawal rate.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m going to refer you to the PortfolioCharts.com website\u2019s longer discussion of how this works because the subject is trickier than you might at first guess: <a href=\"https:\/\/portfoliocharts.com\/2015\/11\/17\/how-safe-withdrawal-rates-work\/\">How Safe Withdrawal Rates Work<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Bump Your Safe Withdrawal Rate by Lowering Risk<\/h2>\n<p>Another way to bump your safe withdrawal rate?<\/p>\n<p>Okay, this is a little theoretical, but if you can dampen the risk of your portfolio (such as by adding riskless assets or by building your portfolio with less correlated asset classes) you should be able to safely nudge up your safe withdrawal a bit. And this is true even if the portfolio doesn\u2019t earn a higher return.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> The article I linked to in the preceding discussion also talks about how dampening risks improves withdrawal rates.<\/p>\n<h2>Bump Your Safe Withdrawal Rate with Variable Withdrawals<\/h2>\n<p>Another\u00a0 hack: The math says you can bump your withdrawal if you\u2019re willing to dial down your withdrawal during a bad patch of portfolio returns.<\/p>\n<p>For example, though the rule of thumb says you can draw 4% pretty safely, you might be able to draw 4.5% pretty safely as long as you cut your draw down to 4% or 3.5% in a bad economy and for as long as your portfolio is beat up.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/cfiresim.com\/\">cFIREsim<\/a> tool lets you model how varying your draws impacts your retirement savings and how it dials down the chance you\u2019ll run out of money.<\/p>\n<h2>Bump Safe Withdrawal Rate By Shortening Retirement<\/h2>\n<p>If you shorten the number of years you draw down retirement savings, you probably bump the safe withdrawal rate significantly.<\/p>\n<p>Working five years longer\u2014even if you don\u2019t save any more money and even if your portfolio doesn\u2019t do anything other than keep up with inflation\u2014should let you bump a 4% withdrawal rate to 4.5%. Roughly.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> Both the <a href=\"https:\/\/firecalc.com\/\">FIREcalc<\/a> and cFIREsim calculators let you easily model a delay in your retirement age.<\/p>\n<h2>Bump Your Rate with Do-it-yourself Investing<\/h2>\n<p>The cost of running your portfolio directly impacts your safe withdrawal rate.<\/p>\n<p>For this reason, learning to build your own portfolio using inexpensive index funds (from someone like Vanguard) and paying a .1% or .05% annual fee rather than paying a 1% or .5% fee should dramatically boost your safe withdrawal rate.<\/p>\n<p>And then this related comment: If you\u2019re paying high fees for investment advice right now, you really are on a path to future lower safe withdrawal rates given the high fees. Sorry. But you want to know that. You may be looking at 3% or 3.5% rather than 4% or better.<\/p>\n<h2>Bump Safe Withdrawal Rate with Higher Failure Rate<\/h2>\n<p>Really, the safe withdrawal rate discussion boils down to a withdrawal rate that historically would have failed only a small percentage of the time.<\/p>\n<p>For example, your safe withdrawal rate might only fail in 5% or 10% of historical cases if you draw at the rate until you reach age 90.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the thing to consider though. That portfolio failure rate isn\u2019t actually your <em>true failure rate<\/em>\u00a0given fact that there\u2019s a good chance you won\u2019t make it to age (say) 90. (Me either, just for the record.)<\/p>\n<p>A 65-year-old male has a 6% chance of making it to age 90, for example.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re a 65-year-old with a portfolio that fails 5% of the time, that means there\u2019s really only a 6% chance to experience the 5%-of-the-time failure.<\/p>\n<p>With a 5% failure rate and a 6% probability you\u2019ll be alive, the compound probability of both conditions equals .3%.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s less than a one in three hundred chance. And I think\u00a0too low to be worrying about for many people.<\/p>\n<p>This sort of logic suggests you might in this situation accept the larger failure rate of a larger safe withdrawal rate.<\/p>\n<p>Combining a 10% failure rate with a 6% probability you or I will be alive, for example, means a roughly .6% failure rate, so a 1 in 170 chance of having your money run out before you do.<\/p>\n<p>No magic here, obviously. You or I are bearing more risk. But that said, we both want to make sure we\u2019re not using a safe withdrawal rate that goes overboard trying to dial down risks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tip:<\/strong> Vanguard provides a useful and simple longevity calculator you can use here: <a href=\"https:\/\/personal.vanguard.com\/us\/insights\/retirement\/plan-for-a-long-retirement-tool\">Vanguard Longevity Calculator<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Bump Safe Withdrawal Rate with Bernicke Spending Model<\/h2>\n<p>Here\u2019s one other approach for bumping up your safe withdrawal rate, at least during the first years (or decade) of your retirement.<\/p>\n<p>You may decide to apply the research done by Ty Bernicke and discussed in his whitepaper\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.i-orp.com\/help\/RealityRetirementPlanning.pdf\"><cite>Reality Retirement Planning: A New Paradigm for an Old Science<\/cite><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Bernicke has documented that we spend less as we age. And if that\u2019s true, you may be able to plan for a larger withdrawal in your early years if you\u2019re okay with budgeting for a smaller withdrawal rate in your later years.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe you go 5% in your early years (or least you do as long as the capital markets don\u2019t swoon). But then you plan and commit to dialing down spending to 3% or whatever in your later years. Perhaps by downsizing a home, dumping the second car, and staying a little closer to home when you travel.<\/p>\n<h2>Final Thoughts<\/h2>\n<p>Just so there\u2019s no misunderstanding: The seven hacks for bumping your safe withdrawal rate don\u2019t let you get crazy.<\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t think there\u2019s a way to bump your safe withdrawal to 6% or 7%. (I only wish.)<\/p>\n<p>But some common-sensed collection of the techniques described above may allow you to bump your percentage by half a percent to a percentage. Especially if you\u2019re clever about combining some of the ideas listed above or if you have been doing things pretty inefficiently right now.<\/p>\n<h2>Related Blog Posts You Might Find Interesting<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/retirement-plan-b-need-one\/\">Retirement Plan B: Why You Need One<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/retirement-plan-b-tips\/\">Retirement Plan B Tips: Dozen Ideas for a Better Plan B<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/financial-planning-for-top-one-percent\/\">Financial Planning for the Top One Percent (and everybody else too)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Are you near retirement? Are you realizing you want or need to bump your safe withdrawal rate? In other words, rather than going with the standard 4% figure people use, do you need to look for ways to nudge that value up? Maybe to 4.25% or 4.5%. Maybe even higher. Like 5%. You need to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5322,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10,20],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-5316","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-personal-finance","8":"category-retirement","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bump Your Safe Withdrawal Rate - Evergreen Small Business<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/bump-your-safe-withdrawal-rate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bump Your Safe Withdrawal Rate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Are you near retirement? 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