{"id":3712,"date":"2016-09-06T05:21:34","date_gmt":"2016-09-06T12:21:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/?p=3712"},"modified":"2017-12-11T11:20:29","modified_gmt":"2017-12-11T19:20:29","slug":"whats-wrong-with-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/whats-wrong-with-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"What’s Wrong with the Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Picture<\/a>Have you followed or heard about Robert Gordon\u2019s diagnosis of what\u2019s wrong with the economy?<\/p>\n

I read Gordon\u2019s book, \u201cThe Rise and Fall of American Growth\u201d months ago when it came out. And, for the life of me, I can\u2019t get his argument out of my head.<\/p>\n

Partly, the stickiness of his book\u2019s ideas stems from their richness. His book is really good and very interesting. And then also, if you\u2019re thinking about what\u2019s wrong with our economy, Gordon does have a common sensed explanation. (Gordon says the rate of improvements delivered by recent innovations aren\u2019t as good as those in the past.)<\/p>\n

But I think Gordon is wrong\u2026 or at least can be wrong for your specific situation if you\u2019re a small business owner or manager. Let me therefore go over Gordon\u2019s chilling argument, explain why I am certain he\u2019s wrong at least as the argument pertains to small business, and then toss out a couple of takeaways and a final comment.<\/p>\n

Robert Gordon\u2019s Hypothesis<\/h1>\n

Gordon, an economics professor<\/a> at Northwestern University, argues that our economy has slowed down because all the big radical innovation is over.<\/p>\n

At first blush, this sounds crazy\u2026 But he points to the radical improvements in things like medicine, infrastructure, transportation and a bunch of other fields as well between 1870 and 1940 and says we\u2019re just not getting the same rate<\/em> of improvement anymore.<\/p>\n

The rate<\/em> angle shows up most clearly when you talk about transportation. A guy who used to walk at 5 mph in 1870 could drive a car that does 60 mph in 1940. A traveler who used to take a train in 1870 that maybe sped along at 40 mph could ride on a plane that went 500 mph in 1950.<\/p>\n

Those rates of improvement were ten- or hundredfold. Massive, right?<\/p>\n

But the rate of improvement since the middle of the last century has slowed. Oh sure, cars last longer and provide for more safety today. But they don\u2019t go 500 miles an hour which is the speed we\u2019d need to have the same rate of improvement.<\/p>\n

Planes? They\u2019re probably safer too\u2026 but they aren\u2019t zooming along at five or ten thousand miles per hour, which again is the sort of speed improvement we\u2019d need to match the rates of improvement of the past.<\/p>\n

You see the thing he\u2019s getting at. Stuff is getting better. But not as fast. And that slowing explains why the economy\u2019s growth has slowed.<\/p>\n

One other part of Gordon\u2019s hypothesis gets really relevant, I think, if you\u2019re an entrepreneur or small business owner. Gordon argues that information and communication technology (maybe particularly \u00a0the Internet) delivered what it had to give by 2004. \u00a0And he backs up this assertion by looking at macroeconomic data that shows no big productivity gains over last ten or so years\u2026<\/p>\n

My Bonehead Rebuttal of a MIT-trained Economist<\/h1>\n

One starts thinking about this stuff and you conclude, gosh, maybe the good times really are over. Maybe we\u2019re going to have to resign ourselves to fighting over a very slowly growing pie. Maybe we\u2019re entering some new age of, well, not scarcity, but diminishing abundance.<\/p>\n

But you know what? \u00a0I don\u2019t think so. In fact, in my own small business, I think recent technology does indeed create shockingly fast rates of improvement.<\/p>\n

Therefore, \u00a0I want to share three examples. And then I want to try reconciling Gordon\u2019s data and his ideas with the anecdotal observations I\u2019m trying to use to rebut the professor.<\/p>\n

As a reminder, though, \u00a0let me say again that what Gordon wants to see are radically big rates of innovation like those that occur when at first you\u2019re traveling along by foot and then next thing you know you\u2019re zooming along in an automobile. Or one year you\u2019re bouncing along in a railroad car powered by a steam locomotive and then the next thing you know, you\u2019re flying above the clouds in a jet airplane.<\/p>\n

Keep that in mind. We\u2019re not looking for incremental improvement. We\u2019re looking for massively exponential improvement.<\/p>\n

Example #1: Moving Products and Services at the Speed of Light<\/h2>\n

And that nicely transitions me to the parts of our business that used to move at the speed of a truck or airplane but now move at nearly the speed of light.\u00a0 More specifically, only a few years ago, we delivered most tax returns prepared by our CPA firm via the U.S. Mail. As a result, sending out a client\u2019s tax return took maybe 2-3 days. Not a bad technology. But slow.<\/p>\n

Today (and this has really only occurred in the last few years and after Professor Gordon\u2019s 2004 cutoff date) we electronically deliver tax returns using the Internet via a highly secure portal. Note that this means we\u2019re moving tax returns at roughly seventy percent of the speed of light down fiber optic cables for the longest distances in the trip.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a giant bump in the rate of improvement right? Massively exponential\u2026<\/p>\n

Note:<\/strong> The speed of transmitting data, which is often what can distill our service down to, appears at several steps\u00a0 in our workflow. And in all cases, we basically get a, say, ten-thousand-fold improvement in speed for that step.<\/p>\n

Example #2: Miniaturization of \u00a0Some Parts of System<\/h2>\n

Let me share another example. We used to use about a quarter of our office space to store paper copies of tax returns and client documents we needed to archive. But no longer.<\/p>\n

We now store all of our clients\u2019 information on an encrypted hard disk that\u2019s, well, about the size of my smart phone\u2026 This means we\u2019ve moved from having about 500 sq. ft. of document storage room for a small professional services office to a few square inches of document storage space\u2026<\/p>\n

And then the new storage system is way more secure. And the new storage system is routinely backed up automatically.<\/p>\n

And so the new approach isn\u2019t only maybe seventy thousand times more efficient in terms of space\u2026 the new approach is also considerably safer.<\/p>\n

Again, a very high rate of improvement, right?<\/p>\n

Example #3: Fast-track Hiring of Team Members<\/h2>\n

Let me give you one other example and then wrap this up by sharing a couple of take-aways\u2026<\/p>\n

We used to use a pretty standard approach to recruiting and hiring employees. We\u2019d write a job advertisement. Then submit it to the local newspaper. For a few hundred dollars, a few days later they\u2019d run the advertisement for a week or so. For a modest fee, they\u2019d collect responses and then periodically batch them up and route them over to our offices.<\/p>\n

From soup to nuts, start to finish, the process easily took a couple of weeks and if you placed a couple of ads, you were looking at maybe $1,000.<\/p>\n

Now? Well, now we write up a little ad for craigslist.org, pay $50 or so to post it, and then wait a few hours for the three or four dozen responses we need to have a list of half a dozen well-qualified candidates to talk to.<\/p>\n

From maybe $1000 to around $50, from two weeks to four hours, that\u2019s a giant rate of improvement. If you\u2019re measuring the dollar cost, we get a twenty-fold improvement. If you measure the time cost, we\u2019re getting about a hundred-fold improvement. That\u2019s not good, that\u2019s great, right?<\/p>\n

Two Takeaways<\/h1>\n

I could go on, I think, and provide maybe a dozen other examples of bits of the business where recently we\u2019ve used technology to get radical improvements for some important step in the process. But they\u2019ll all sort of look like the examples I\u2019ve already shared. So let me move onto my next subject… what all this maybe means. I have two ideas for you to gnaw on.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s my first point: All of the examples I mention above, as well as those I\u2019m thinking about but which for space reasons I haven\u2019t mentioned, have only slowly became truly practical at least for our firm in the last few years. Yes, yes, the enabling technology was invented years ago. But for various reasons, we couldn’t get them to work well immediately–at least in a small business setting.<\/p>\n

I think this practical lag in application is part of the reason that the data Professor Gordon uses to do his analysis doesn\u2019t show the benefits of these technological improvements. Yes, the basic enabling technology existed in, say, 2004\u2026 but people needed time to figure out how to really apply the technology\u2026 and then even after that, people needed to get an opportunity and have the time to implement the application.<\/p>\n

Another take-away: The technology-based innovations mentioned above and the others I\u2019m thinking about all require businesses to tweak and fine-tune and sometimes do major re-engineering of \u00a0their business models. And that fiddle-faddling takes more time.<\/p>\n

To use the example of electronic delivery of products, the small business owner or entrepreneur needs to reconfigure the operation with tools that work not just in theory but work in practice and then train people and then scale up in order to get the whole thing working and working efficiently.<\/p>\n

Final Comment<\/h1>\n

Gordon and others call the rosy sentiments of the preceding paragraphs \u201ctechno-optimism.\u201d And that\u2019s probably a pretty fair label at a macroeconomic level given the big picture data he and his peers look at. But can I leave you with a final thought? Maybe we small business people need to work a little harder to get the productivity improvements that are now available to us.<\/p>\n

Absolutely, you and I have dozens of really powerful ways to profitably reconfigure our small businesses so they generate more revenue, produce higher quality products and services for customers, consume fewer resources, and drop more profit to the bottom-line.<\/p>\n

Relevant Related Posts You Might Like<\/h2>\n

Setting a Strategy for Your Small Business<\/a><\/p>\n

How Not to Become a Billionaire<\/a><\/p>\n

Five Questions Your Business Plan Must Answer<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Have you followed or heard about Robert Gordon\u2019s diagnosis of what\u2019s wrong with the economy? I read Gordon\u2019s book, \u201cThe Rise and Fall of American Growth\u201d months ago when it came out. And, for the life of me, I can\u2019t get his argument out of my head. Partly, the stickiness of his book\u2019s ideas stems […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3713,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,5,9,16],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-3712","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-management","8":"category-new-business","9":"category-software","10":"category-strategy","11":"entry"},"yoast_head":"\nWhat's Wrong with the Economy - Evergreen Small Business<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/whats-wrong-with-economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What's Wrong with the Economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Have you followed or heard about Robert Gordon\u2019s diagnosis of what\u2019s wrong with the economy? I read Gordon\u2019s book, \u201cThe Rise and Fall of American Growth\u201d months ago when it came out. And, for the life of me, I can\u2019t get his argument out of my head. 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