{"id":14034,"date":"2021-06-15T11:33:23","date_gmt":"2021-06-15T18:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/?p=14034"},"modified":"2021-06-15T12:37:10","modified_gmt":"2021-06-15T19:37:10","slug":"small-business-failure-rate-grossly-exaggerated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/small-business-failure-rate-grossly-exaggerated\/","title":{"rendered":"Small Business Failure Rate Grossly Exaggerated?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/iStock-460508051.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-14039\" src=\"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/iStock-460508051-300x201.jpg\" alt=\"Business failure rate, Mongolian beef and Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman blog post\" width=\"300\" height=\"201\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/iStock-460508051-300x201.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/iStock-460508051.jpg 723w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Last weekend I visited a local Chinese restaurant I enjoyed as a kid.<\/p>\n<p>The experience was a fun walk down memory lane. I hadn\u2019t eaten there for decades. (Over the meal, the owner mentioned they started the restaurant 55 years ago. Wow.)<\/p>\n<p>Because earlier in the day, by coincidence, I\u2019d been reading Daniel Kahneman\u2019s thoughts about entrepreneurship and business failure statistics, the experience prompted me to reflect on the small business failure rate. Especially the general public\u2019s perception of the failure rate.<\/p>\n<p>And my key thought? I am pretty darn sure conventional wisdom exaggerates the true risks of entrepreneurship.<\/p>\n<p>But hear me out\u2026 and see if you agree.<\/p>\n<h2>The Conventional Wisdom about Small Business Failures<\/h2>\n<p>The conventional wisdom goes like this: Most small businesses fail. Twenty percent for example close in the first year. Most don\u2019t last more than five years.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s the <em>conventional<\/em> wisdom\u2026<\/p>\n<p>And if you don\u2019t believe me? Yeah, go ahead and Google on the phrase \u201csmall business failure rate.\u201d The search results pages will link to a long list of webpages that repeat this assertion. And many of these sources? Highly credible.<\/p>\n<p>Big newspapers. Popular blogs. Well-known business publications.<\/p>\n<h2>Small Business Failure Definition<\/h2>\n<p>The source for the small business failure rate varies.<\/p>\n<p>But these days, writers often directly or indirectly reference the Bureau of Labor Statistic\u2019s Business Employment Dynamics statistics study. Or the Census Bureau\u2019s Business Dynamics Statistics database.<\/p>\n<p>Those statistical studies mostly track employment by quarter and employer.<\/p>\n<p>And what the studies report as a business failure? When a business stops employing people.<\/p>\n<p>For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on when some business paid employees the third month of the previous quarter but paid no wages in the current quarter based on unemployment insurance claims. (Here\u2019s an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/bdm\/entrepreneurship\/bdm_chart3.htm\">example table of data<\/a> that provides this sort of information.)<\/p>\n<p>The Census Bureau sort of does the same thing\u2014only with an adjustment that doesn\u2019t count mergers as failures if the new combined firm continues.<\/p>\n<p>But to be nitpicky\u2014and we should\u2014these definitions arguably fail to accurately describe reality. Maybe even <em>badly<\/em> fail.<\/p>\n<p>Which I found myself thinking about over the Mongolian beef lunch special.<\/p>\n<h2>How the Conventional Small Business Failure Definition Fails<\/h2>\n<p>You\u2019ve maybe already spotted the logic error in the definition. Some employer who stops paying wages may not have failed.<\/p>\n<p>If an entrepreneur sells a business for a big windfall? That may show up as a failure.<\/p>\n<p>If a small business owner with a profitable operation gets an irresistible job offer and so takes the job? That may show up as a failure.<\/p>\n<p>If a small business person retires\u2014maybe after making a good living for decades? That may show up as a failure.<\/p>\n<p>In all of these cases, and more as well, the employer may stop paying wages. Or the business activity may stop. And that meets the Bureau of Labor Statistics\u2019 or the Census Bureau\u2019s definition of failure.<\/p>\n<p>However, the business owner or entrepreneur may in fact see the change in status as a success.<\/p>\n<p>My blog posts sometimes get way too long. That\u2019s probably because most of my writing? Books.<\/p>\n<p>But let humor me for a few more paragraphs\u2026 because I want to share a handful of related comments.<\/p>\n<h2>Daniel Kahneman is a Nobel Laureate But\u2026<\/h2>\n<p>A first tangential comment. Daniel Kahneman in his classic, <cite>Thinking Fast and Slow<\/cite>, uses entrepreneurship as a perfect example of a common flaw in our thinking: being optimistic. (He calls this an optimism bias. And in that discussion, he quotes the statistic discussed in this blog post.)<\/p>\n<p>But while I <em>love<\/em> Kahneman\u2019s book\u2014you really want to read it if you\u2019ve not yet done so\u2014I respectfully submit he gets this bit about entrepreneurship wrong.<\/p>\n<p>With great irony, Professor Kahneman actually makes two other cognitive mistakes he warns readers about in the chapters <em>before<\/em> the chapter where he warns people about entrepreneurship and optimism bias.<\/p>\n<p>He (like many others) uses the answer to a different <em>easier<\/em> question. He doesn\u2019t know how many entrepreneurs fail, so he looks at how many employers stop paying wages.<\/p>\n<p>Further, he falls into the trap of relying on a popular easy-to-understand story\u2014what his book calls a \u201cnarrative fallacy.\u201d That story? Well, that we all <em>know<\/em> most small businesses fail.<\/p>\n<p>We want to avoid making the same errors.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, that\u2019s my first comment.<\/p>\n<p>A little sidebar may be appropriate here: Professor Kahneman received a Nobel prize in economics for the work he an Amos Tversky did on prospect theory. I want to acknowledge that.<\/p>\n<h2>Ask Your CPA About Small Business Failures<\/h2>\n<p>Another tangential comment. If you work with a CPA, ask her or him if most of their small business clients quickly fail.<\/p>\n<p>My hunch? She or he <em>won\u2019t<\/em> say that\u2019s the case. She or he <em>won\u2019t<\/em> say, \u201cOh, heavens yes\u2026 it\u2019s a bloodbath. Every year. I don\u2019t know why people keep trying it\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Rather, she or he will say, \u201cWell, you need to be careful\u2026 thoughtful\u2026 but yeah, some folks do really well.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Your accountant may then go on and talk about having a business plan. Maybe about needing to be adequately capitalized. And other stuff along these lines.<\/p>\n<p>That commentary represents only anecdotal information of course. But it also hints that the conventional wisdom about small business failure rates may be wrong.<\/p>\n<h2>A Last Comment About Small Business Failure Rates<\/h2>\n<p>And this final comment about small business failure rates.<\/p>\n<p>Not much data exists about the number of business closures that count as clear-cut entrepreneurial failures.<\/p>\n<p>But some does. And the picture that data paints looks very different from the conventional wisdom.<\/p>\n<p>As one example, Australian business school professors Jim Everett and John Watson looked closely at failures of mall-based retailers about two decades ago in a paper entitled <cite><a href=\"https:\/\/cemi.com.au\/sites\/all\/publications\/Everett%20and%20Watson%201998%20SME%20failure%20rates.pdf\">Small Business Failure and External Risk Factors<\/a><\/cite>.<\/p>\n<p>What they found? Nearly half the closures were voluntary. So, <em>not<\/em> economic. Rather, business owners closed stores due to retirement, health reasons, or simply to exit at a profit.<\/p>\n<p>Those researchers were careful to say their small study shouldn\u2019t be generalized. But one can\u2019t ignore their data. If Everett and Watson were right, maybe half the failures the popular statistical studies report should be reclassified as entrepreneurial successes.<\/p>\n<p>Which changes the situation a lot\u2026<\/p>\n<h2>Other Resources<\/h2>\n<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics entrepreneur information including the Business Employment Dynamics survey appears <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/bdm\/entrepreneurship\/entrepreneurship.htm\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Census Bureau\u2019s Business Dynamics Statistics overview appears <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/bds.html\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A few years ago, we blogged about the <a href=\"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/your-real-odds-for-business-start-up-success\/\">odds of entrepreneurial success<\/a> and shared some real-life anecdotes. If you\u2019re thinking about whether or not you want to become self-employed, that discussion may be useful.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, we rebut some of the academic arguments against entrepreneurship here: <a href=\"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/the-illusions-of-entrepreneurship-professors\/\">The Illusions of Entrepreneurship Professors<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last weekend I visited a local Chinese restaurant I enjoyed as a kid. The experience was a fun walk down memory lane. I hadn\u2019t eaten there for decades. (Over the meal, the owner mentioned they started the restaurant 55 years ago. Wow.) Because earlier in the day, by coincidence, I\u2019d been reading Daniel Kahneman\u2019s thoughts [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14039,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-14034","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-management","8":"category-new-business","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Small Business Failure Rate Grossly Exaggerated? - Evergreen Small Business<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Researching the small business failure rate? 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