{"id":1303,"date":"2015-01-19T08:36:47","date_gmt":"2015-01-19T08:36:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/?p=1303"},"modified":"2015-05-18T18:50:30","modified_gmt":"2015-05-18T18:50:30","slug":"how-to-not-to-become-a-billionaire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/how-to-not-to-become-a-billionaire\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Not to Become a Billionaire"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Picture<\/a>
People come up with all sorts of crazy ideas about how to be successful.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Peter Thiel in his recent book From Zero to One<\/cite> makes a bunch of interesting, useful points about entrepreneurship.<\/p>\n

Thiel, as you may already know, co-founded PayPal. And he has made a series of spectacular venture capital investments.<\/p>\n

So right at the start, I want to stipulate that if you\u2019re interested in becoming a billionaire or want to raise venture capital to fund some enterprise, absolutely, you should read Mr. Thiel\u2019s book.<\/p>\n

Heck, even if you\u2019re not interested in becoming a billionaire or raising venture capital, if you\u2019re running a small business, you probably ought to read Thiel. How often do you get to see inside the head of billionaire or venture capitalist?<\/p>\n

But though I really appreciate Mr. Thiel\u2019s ideas and contributions, I see a problem with Mr. Thiel\u2019s theories: They don\u2019t seem to me to work very well for small businesses.<\/p>\n

Thiel\u2019s Grading Rubric Too Harsh<\/h2>\n

My big issue with Mr. Thiel\u2019s thinking? The grading rubric he suggests an entrepreneur use for identifying promising ventures.<\/p>\n

Thiel, very correctly, points out the benefits of an entrepreneur or management team pursuing ventures that can massively scale and that employ things like network effects, a proprietary technology, and a strong brand to secure big competitive advantages.<\/p>\n

But you can use, I submit, an easier grading rubric for identifying good small business entrepreneurial opportunities.<\/p>\n

In other words, if you\u2019re not trying to become a billionaire or trying to raise investment money from a billionaire, you can work with a more \u201cmillionaire-esque\u201d set of criteria.<\/p>\n

What might that easier grading rubric look like? Let me share a handful of ideas\u2026<\/p>\n

Start with a Decent Strategy<\/h2>\n

Okay, first? You want to be working off a identifiable \u201cniche\u201d or \u201cdifferentiation\u201d strategy.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not going to go on and on about this here. I\u2019ve chattered away on this subject in other blog posts. (See here<\/a> and here<\/a> for example.)<\/p>\n

But to make the obvious point, you need a good strategy for any venture you consider. You need, in other words, to have and to understand a\u00a0reason that customers or clients choose you instead of your competitors.<\/p>\n

Adequate Rewards<\/h2>\n

Another important criterion relates to the profitability of the business.<\/p>\n

This sounds so simplistic as to not warrant words, but you need to make sure that the venture is adequately profitable.<\/p>\n

Specifically, you want to not only earn a fair wage for your time and effort. You also<\/em> need to earn a return on the capital you or others (perhaps a bank, perhaps outside partners) have invested. And you also<\/em> need to have some extra profit for financial cushioning so that a hiccup in the business doesn\u2019t cause the whole venture to fold.<\/p>\n

This calculation doesn\u2019t have to be that complicated. Let\u2019s say that you want to earn $50,000 as a wage for your business. Let\u2019s suppose that you have $30,000 in annual bank loan payments. Let\u2019s say you need a $20,000 a year cushion.<\/p>\n

In this case, you want to focus on ventures that have a nice, high probability of quickly achieving annual profits of $100,000. That profit level pays you the wages you want, pays the bank its loan payments, and generates an extra $20,000 a year (hopefully) in cushioning you can use if something goes sideways.<\/p>\n

One important related point\u2026 I\u2019m just making up numbers here. Your situation will surely<\/em> vary.<\/p>\n

For example, if you want a part-time venture that is compatible with parenthood or semi-retirement, you might only require a tenth of the money I\u2019m talking about here. $10,000 might work great for your venture.<\/p>\n

Or for another example, if you\u2019ll be leaving a great job and will pursue a venture that requires tons of capital, you might not be able to make things work with ten times the profit target I’ve used. In this case, $1,000,000 in profits might prove inadequate.<\/p>\n

Low Vulnerability to 800-pound Gorillas<\/h2>\n

Another simple criterion: You want to avoid any venture where you\u2019re vulnerable to some gigantic customer or vendor or outside agent.<\/p>\n

You shouldn’t put yourself and your small business in the position of being vulnerable to a single big outside player.<\/p>\n

Remember the joke: What does an 800-lb gorilla get to do? Anything he wants.<\/p>\n

Maybe I shouldn’t get so personal here, but one of the reasons I have very low interest in pursuing the self-publishing opportunities available via Amazon.com is the 800-pound gorilla angle.<\/p>\n

Yes, I enjoyed some great luck writing and even publishing how-to books about computers, including QuickBooks for Dummies<\/cite> and Quicken for Dummies<\/cite>.<\/p>\n

But giant publishers reportedly have trouble dealing with Amazon. What sort of treatment might I expect? Yikes.<\/p>\n

No Black Boxes in Supply Chain or Business Process<\/h2>\n

And here\u2019s another, sort of similar criterion: I think you want to avoid any venture that includes a supply chain or process with a black box or, heaven forbid, with multiple black boxes. No critical step or process should be hidden from your view.<\/p>\n

Another technology venture example nicely highlights this\u2026<\/p>\n

You can obviously build small businesses that rely on free, so-called organic search engine traffic from Google. And these sorts of ventures can, for a time at least, often be very profitable. (I\u2019ve enjoyed success in this area myself.)<\/p>\n

The problem with these search-engine-based ventures, however, is that they include black boxes like the search engine\u2019s ranking algorithms and search engine\u2019s penalty systems.<\/p>\n

These black boxes mean that you won\u2019t really know what you need to do to perpetuate success. And these black boxes mean that if something inside a black box causes a business to break, you won\u2019t have any idea what you should do to fix the business.<\/p>\n

High Barriers to Entry<\/h2>\n

One last, almost counter-intuitive idea: You want to focus on ventures with high barriers to entry.<\/p>\n

In fact, you probably want barriers to entry that are so high you are only just barely able get into the business.<\/p>\n

A high barrier to entry should reduce the competition you face because other people, too, will find it difficult to get over the barrier.<\/p>\n

And then, a related point, a high barrier to entry can protect a market from low-skill, poorly-capitalized or poorly managed competitors who can inadvertently damage or degrade your industry or niche.<\/p>\n

You probably don’t want to be an niche, for example, that allows low-skill competitors to come in, regularly do shoddy work, and then make customers start asking “Gosh, does everybody in this niche do shoddy work?”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Peter Thiel in his recent book From Zero to One makes a bunch of interesting, useful points about entrepreneurship. Thiel, as you may already know, co-founded PayPal. And he has made a series of spectacular venture capital investments. So right at the start, I want to stipulate that if you\u2019re interested in becoming a billionaire […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1305,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,5,16],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1303","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-management","8":"category-new-business","9":"category-strategy","10":"entry"},"yoast_head":"\nHow to Not to Become a Billionaire - Evergreen Small Business<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/evergreensmallbusiness.com\/how-to-not-to-become-a-billionaire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How to Not to Become a Billionaire\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Peter Thiel in his recent book From Zero to One makes a bunch of interesting, useful points about entrepreneurship. 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